Research Article
An International Comparison of Financial Analysts' Corporate Earnings Forecasting Ability
Published: January 1995 · Vol. 24, No. 3 · pp. 323-352
Full Text
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the relative superiority of Korean and American financial analysts' corporate earnings forecasting ability by comparing their earnings forecasts for Korean firms. The empirical analysis was conducted using earnings per share forecasts over a four-year period (1988–1991) for a sample of 140 firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange for which both IBES (American financial analysts) and the Daewoo Economic Research Institute (Korean financial analysts) commonly provided forecast information. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, when evaluated on the criterion of forecast accuracy, there was no statistically significant difference between Korean and American financial analysts; however, Korean financial analysts' corporate earnings forecasting ability was relatively superior to that of American financial analysts. This finding was consistent across both short-term and long-term forecasts and across all industries, although the relative superiority of Korean financial analysts decreased for firms that were larger, export-oriented, and followed by a greater number of financial analysts. Second, when suitability as a proxy for market expected earnings was used as the evaluation criterion, American financial analysts' corporate earnings forecasting ability appeared slightly superior to that of Korean financial analysts, but the difference was not statistically significant. Notably, this result was consistent regardless of forecast horizon, industry of the forecasted firm, or firm characteristic factors such as firm size, international visibility, and analyst forecast preference.
