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Changes in Global Commercial Real Estate Capitalization Rates and COVID-19

Moon, Jeonghun1 · Han, Gyusik2

1 National Pension Service, 2 Jeonbuk National University

Published: January 2025 · Vol. 54 No. 6 · pp. 1825-1850

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17287/kmr.2025.54.6.1825

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Abstract

This study empirically investigates the response of the capitalization rate (Cap Rate) in global commercial real estate (CRE) to the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike prior literature that primarily interprets the Cap Rate as a discount rate linked to interest rates or inflation, this research identifies the Cap Rate as a macro-sensitive response variable influenced by factors such as unemployment, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), industrial production, money supply (M2), short-term rates, and stock returns. Using a monthly panel dataset covering seven countries, we categorize observations across three major global regions (U.S., Europe, Asia-Pacific) and four distinct property sectors (office, retail, industrial, and apartment). We employ panel regressions, Difference-in-Differences (DID), and event study methods to capture both structural changes and dynamic responses before and after the pandemic onset. The introduction of the Infectious Disease Tracker Index (IDTI) as an exogenous proxy for pandemic uncertainty allows for robust identification of shock effects. Our findings reveal heterogeneous Cap Rate responses across sectors and regions, which reflect underlying differences in investor expectations, policy credibility, and structural risk. This study contributes to the literature by offering a more comprehensive interpretation of Cap Rate behavior and provides practical insights for valuation, risk management, and policy analysis in the post-pandemic real estate market.
Keywords: 상업용 부동산 자본환원율COVID-19 팬데믹이중차분법사건 연구팬데믹 불확실성 지수