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The 2008 Financial Crisis and Changes in Analyst Forecast Tendencies

Song, Minseop1 · Byun, Sanghyeok1

1 Sogang University

Published: January 2013 · Vol. 42 No. 5 · pp. 1187-1218
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Abstract

Press indicates that optimistic bias in information intermediaries such as analysts is one of the major causes for 2008 financial crisis. The objective of this study is to examine whether and how analysts change their forecasting behaviors around 2008 financial crisis to investigate the role of analysts in capital market during 2008 financial crisis. More specifically, we examine how analysts revise their stock recommendations and earnings forecasts around 2008 financial crisis. We also examine the change in investors’ reactions to analysts’ earnings forecast revisions around 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results show that analysts tend to simply reiterate their existing forecasts or do not issue forecasts during 2008 financial crisis. Relatively small number of analysts revised their stock recommendations and earnings forecasts during financial crisis. Because of these behaviors,overall analyst forecasts and recommendations become optimistically biased. In addition, we find insignificant earnings response coefficient on analysts’ upward earnings revisions during financial crisis period, while we find stronger market reaction to downward revisions. Our empirical results suggest that analysts play the limited role as information intermediaries during 2008 financial crisis. In addition, investors tend to discount information content of analyst forecasts if forecasts are inconsistent with stock market condition. Our evidence helps investors and regulators and investors in assessing value of analyst forecasts and need for new regulation.
Keywords: 2008 금융위기낙관적 예측낙관적 편의애널리스트애널리스트 이익 예측애널리스트 주식추천 의견