Home Articles Abstract
Research Article

An Exploratory Study on Factors Affecting Korean Film Profitability

Park, Yeongeun1 · Kim, Sanghun1 · Park, Hyeonjeong1 · Lee, Donggi1

1 Seoul National University

Published: January 2010 · Vol. 39, No. 2 · pp. 459-488
Full Text

Abstract

This study investigates how various factors influence the profitability of Korean movies. The current study is distinguished from previous studies by examining on the “profitability”of the movies instead of “sales revenue” or “box office results.” Based on the data from 192 films released in South Korea between 2005 and 2006, this study also tries to find meaningful inter-relationships among factors affecting the profitability of movies via a method called Bayesian networks. The most significant contribution of this research is to validate the most realistic and objective “movie performance model” by taking advantage of the profitability data. Most of the existing studies used theater attendance (box-office revenue) or video/DVD sales as the key performance of movies. However, such measurements don’t reflect all the costs of making and distributing movies, and therefore fail to give correct insights for making profits. For the analyses, the authors used Bayesian networks approach by utilizing the Genie program. Unlike the most popular regression analysis that assumes independence among “independent”variables, Bayesian networks is useful in exploring the causal inter-relationships among many variables. It allows not only to cross-examine the association between variables but also to determine the optimal allocation and combination of resources to increase the key dependent variable, which is profitability. Some of the key findings include the following. First, marketing expense (known as P&A)and the number of screens have direct influences on the net profit. Production cost only has an indirect impact on the profit via marketing expense. After the inter-relationships among variables were found, a series of sensitivity analyses were performed to see how the factors can best combined to yield desirable results. For example, when the level of marketing expense gradually increases at a certain fixed level of production cost, the chances of profitability dramatically increases. However, when the level of production cost gradually increases at a certain level of marketing expense, the changes in the profitability are relatively small. It means that the marketing expense has a greater impact on the net profit than the production cost has. Production cost only has an indirect impact on the profit via marketing expense. As for another profitability measure, the ROI(return on investment), both production cost and marketing expense have direct influences. The number of screens also have a direct influence on ROI. Some simulation runs gave us insights such as the following. The more aggressive marketing activity of low-budget film, the better the performance is likely to be. In case of the production cost of a huge blockbuster film, increasing marketing expense can worsen the performance. Therefore, focused investment in the production cost and marketing expense is a way to improve performance. Besides, the impacts of production cost on actors,marketing expense, proportion of theatrical revenue were confirmed. Actors turned out to influence the profitability, only by influencing the film director, distributor, etc. Despite a couple of limitations of this study, the analysis results of this research would not only help researchers develop a better understanding of how the film industry makes profts, but also aid practitioners in deriving an optimal strategy of allocating money into various aspects of filmmaking.
Keywords: 베이지안 네트워크엔터테인먼트 마케팅영화 마케팅영화 수익성