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Research Article

Characteristics of Delayed Foreign Exchange Exposure and Determinants of Foreign Exchange Exposure

Kwon, Taekho

Published: January 2006 · Vol. 35, No. 3 · pp. 735-756
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Abstract

This study analyzed the characteristics and determinants of foreign exchange exposure for manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Securities Market with December fiscal year-ends in the post-foreign exchange crisis period. Considering that past exchange rate fluctuations can affect current firm value, we estimated total exchange exposure coefficients that include lagged exchange exposure from past exchange rate fluctuations, and analyzed the characteristics of exchange exposure. Additionally, considering that exchange exposure coefficients may not have linear relationships with variables representing the degree of international business activities, we conducted a determinants analysis of exchange exposure using an ordered dependent variable model. The results confirmed that the sample firms' exchange exposure includes both contemporaneous exposure and lagged exposure, and that these two types of exposure differ significantly. When analyzing total exchange exposure—calculated by combining the exchange exposure from the current month's exchange rate fluctuations with the exposure from the previous month's exchange rate fluctuations—we were able to confirm relationships between exchange exposure and variables representing the degree of international business activities, such as export ratio, foreign currency debt ratio, and foreign direct investment ratio. Firms with higher export ratios showed a higher probability of positive exchange exposure, while firms with higher foreign currency-denominated debt ratios and higher foreign direct investment ratios showed a higher probability of negative exchange exposure. Analysis results for the pre-foreign exchange crisis period also supported these conclusions.
Keywords: 순위종속변수 모형지연된 환노출환노출환노출 결정요인