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Factor Analysis Affecting Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecast Accuracy

Kwon, Suyeong · Kim, Jeongguk

Published: January 1997 · Vol. 26, No. 4 · pp. 893-914
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to identify the determinants that affect the accuracy of financial analysts' earnings forecasts. Based on a survey of financial analysts, we present various characteristics of financial analysts and examine the extent to which these characteristics influence the accuracy of their earnings forecasts. This survey enables the measurement of micro-level variables such as the number of stocks covered by each analyst, the degree of research concentration on specific stocks, information utilization, and data collection methods. Identifying the factors that affect earnings forecast accuracy is critically important for improving the forecasting environment and enhancing the usefulness of earnings forecasts. According to the research findings, the magnitude of forecast errors is related to the number of stocks covered, the forecast horizon, and whether a database has been established. Therefore, to improve the accuracy and usefulness of earnings forecasts, it is necessary to enhance environmental factors such as specialization of earnings forecasting tasks, reform of accounting and disclosure systems, pooling of earnings forecast data, and maintenance of proactive investor relations.