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Intra-Industry Information Transfer Effect and Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

Kim, Jongdae

Published: January 1995 · Vol. 24, No. 2 · pp. 371-400
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Abstract

This paper tested the hypothesis that intra-industry information transfers can be used to improve financial analysts' earnings forecasts for late-announcing firms. The results showed that utilizing the information transfer effect could significantly reduce the bias in Value-Line financial analysts' earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the use of the information transfer effect significantly reduced the absolute value of forecast errors. To analyze the differential effects across firms in cross-section, earnings covariance between firms and firm size were selected as variables, yielding the following results. The improvement in forecast accuracy was positively correlated with the earnings covariance between early-announcing and late-announcing firms. That is, the accuracy improvement effect was greater when the earnings correlation between the two firms was higher. A firm size effect existed in accuracy improvement: the improvement effect was greater for smaller firms than for larger firms. The firm size effect was more pronounced when size was measured by market share rather than by market capitalization.