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Research Article

A Study on Optimal International Bond Investment Portfolio Selection Strategies

Kim, Cheol

Published: January 1991 · Vol. 20, No. 2 · pp. 353-398
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Abstract

This study conducted simulations targeting government bonds of eight advanced nations—the United States, Japan, West Germany, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, Canada, and the Netherlands—as well as gold, in order to discover optimal international bond investment portfolio selection strategies. As premises for portfolio selection strategies, the investor's objective functions were set as follows: first, maximization of the Sharpe performance index, and second, maximization of terminal wealth. The simulated portfolio selection strategies consisted of the Safety-First strategy group, the Geometric Mean Maximization strategy group, the Equal-Weight strategy, the World Market-Weight strategy, and the Single-Asset strategy. The performance evaluation base currencies adopted included the U.S. dollar, SDR, trade-weighted currency basket, West German mark, and Japanese yen. The major conclusions of the simulation are as follows. First, an investor whose objective is the maximization of the Sharpe performance index can enhance the likelihood of achieving the desired objective by revising the portfolio annually based on the Safety-First strategy using the past one year as the estimation period. Second, an investor whose objective is the maximization of terminal wealth can likewise enhance the likelihood of achieving the desired objective by revising the portfolio annually based on the Geometric Mean Maximization criterion using the past one year as the estimation period. Third, the World Market Portfolio strategy is likely to result in holding an ex post inefficient portfolio.