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Research Article

The Effect of Accounting Conservatism on Future Stock Price Crash Risk

Lee, Sangho1 · Choi, Seunguk2

1 Korea University, 2 Kwangwoon University

Published: January 2017 · Vol. 46, No. 2 · pp. 561-594

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17287/kmr.2017.46.2.561

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Abstract

This study examined the relationship between accounting conservatism and future stock price crash risk. Additionally, it analyzed how financial statement comparability and information asymmetry affect the relationship between accounting conservatism and future stock price crashes. Conservative accounting practices recognize expenses in a more timely manner relative to revenues, thereby reducing managers' tendency to delay the disclosure of bad news. This implies that the likelihood of stock price crashes caused by the sudden disclosure of accumulated and concealed losses can be reduced. Furthermore, prior research suggests that conservative accounting reduces agency costs and aids corporate investment decision-making. Therefore, if investors recognize the degree of a firm's accounting conservatism, stock price crashes for that firm may be prevented in advance. Using a sample of 9,026 listed firm-year observations from 2002 to 2014, and employing the accounting conservatism measure based on Basu's (1997) stock price-earnings model, the analysis found that the degree of conservative accounting was not significantly related to future stock price crash risk. However, when accounting conservatism was measured using Ball and Shivakumar's (2005) model, an increase in conservative accounting was found to reduce future stock price crash risk. These mixed results suggest that the negative relationship between accounting conservatism and stock price crash risk is not empirically clear-cut. This implies the possibility that investors may fail to identify firms' conservative accounting practices and that the demand for accounting conservatism itself may be low. Accordingly, the effects of financial statement comparability and information asymmetry—conditions under which the identifiability of accounting conservatism increases and demand for conservative accounting is likely higher—were examined respectively. The results showed that for firms with higher financial statement comparability, the negative relationship between accounting conservatism and future stock price crash risk was more significant compared to firms with lower comparability. This suggests that investors of firms with higher financial statement comparability, who face relatively lower costs of acquiring financial information and easier access to financial statements, are more likely to identify accounting conservatism and incorporate it into their investment decisions. Furthermore, these results were also observed in samples with higher information asymmetry, proxied by industry concentration and auditor industry specialization. Additionally, the results of this study were maintained when alternative proxies for stock price crash risk were employed.
Keywords: 회계 보수성주가폭락위험재무제표 비교가능성정보불균형산업집중도산업전문감사인