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Research Article

The Effect of Financial Statement Comparability on Financial Analysts' Forecast Revisions of Management Forecast Information

Ki, Eunseon1 · Kwon, Suyeong1

1 Korea University

Published: January 2014 · Vol. 43 No. 5 · pp. 1813-1842
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Abstract

This study investigates whether analysts are less sensitive to management forecast news whena forecasting firm has comparable accounting systems. Furthermore, I examine how a firm’smanagement forecast affects analyst earnings forecasts of other firms in the same industry. Prior studies show that managers are firm specialists, while analysts are industry specialists. If a forecasting firm has other comparable firms in the same industry, analysts can make moreaccurate earnings forecasts by using comparable firms’ information as a benchmark. It willdecrease analysts demand for management forecasts. Therefore, I expect financial statementcomparability lower the effects of management forecast news on analyst earnings forecastrevisions for a forecasting firm. Meanwhile, a firm’s management earnings forecast may causeanalyst earnings forecast revisions for other firms in the same industry because it conveys prospectsfor its industry or competitive shifts across firms. If a forecasting firm i is more comparable toanother non-forecasting firm j, analysts can make better use of firm i’s management forecast toanalyze firm j with relatively small efforts. Therefore, I expect analysts’ propensity to reviseearnings forecasts for a particular non-forecasting firm increases in financial statementcomparability between two firms. To test these hypotheses, I use the 292 management earnings forecasts issued by firms listedon the Korea Stock Exchange for the period of 2002 to 2011. Also for the purpose of investigatingintra-industry information transfers associated with management forecasts, I use the 8,002 non-forecasting firm-year observations. I adopt the methodology suggested by De Frnaco et al. (2011) to estimate financial statement comparability. The empirical results of this study are as follows. First, if a forecasting firm is comparable toother firms in the same industry, analysts place less weight on management forecast news. Second, the probability that analysts revise earnings forecasts of another non-forecasting firm jin the same industry after firm i issues a management forecast increases in financial statementcomparability between a forecasting firm(firm i) and a non-forecasting firm(firm j). It suggestsfinancial statement comparability facilitates information transfers associated with managementforecasts. Third, good(bad) news from a forecasting firm causes, on average, a positive(negative)analyst earnings forecast revisions for non-forecasting firms in the same industry. But financialstatement comparability weakens this positive informations transfers. It indicates analystsinterpret a good news issued by a forecasting firm conveys market share taken away from thecompetition when a forecasting firm is more comparable to a non-forecasting firm. This study is different from previous research in several ways. First, this study extends priorresearch by showing that the quantity and quality of information about comparable firmsaffects the magnitude of analysts' reaction to firm's voluntary disclosure. Furthermore, in thisstudy, I show that financial statement comparability between a forecasting firm and informationreceiver can make a difference in magnitude and sign of information transfers. Also, I relieve thestrong assumption of market efficiency by using analysts’reaction instead of stock market reaction.
Keywords: 재무제표의 비교가능성경영자예측정보재무분석가의 예측수정