Research Article
The Effect of Financial Analysts' Personal Characteristics on Earnings Forecast Properties
University of Suwon
Published: January 2012 · Vol. 41 No. 6 · pp. 1555-1590
Full Text
Abstract
This study examined whether financial analysts exhibit persistent and systematic forecast bias in earnings forecasts regardless of the firms they cover due to their own inherent personal characteristics, using a sample from 2001 to 2008. Additionally, this study compared the forecast accuracy of financial analysts who exhibit systematic forecast bias with that of financial analysts who do not exhibit systematic forecast bias. The forecast accuracy of financial analysts exhibiting systematic forecast bias was expected to be lower than that of analysts without such bias. This is because financial analysts who make sophisticated judgments based on a high level of professional knowledge would conduct forecasting activities based on the past operating performance of each covered firm, the firm's position within a specific industry, and overall economic trends, and the resulting forecast bias would show either positive (+) or negative (-) values rather than systematically showing positive (+) or negative (-) values regardless of the covered firm. The empirical analysis results indicated that some financial analysts exhibited systematically optimistic or pessimistic forecast bias regardless of the firms they covered. Furthermore, the forecast accuracy of financial analysts exhibiting systematic forecast bias was found to be lower than that of analysts without such bias. Moreover, the forecast accuracy of financial analysts exhibiting systematically optimistic forecast bias was found to be the lowest, which is consistent with the theoretical analysis results of Beyer (2008), who showed that low analytical ability can be a cause of financial analysts' optimistic forecast bias. Most empirical studies have sought to find the reasons for analysts' forecast bias in the financial incentives of their affiliated securities firms and the analysts themselves. This study contributes by showing that, in addition to such external factors, financial analysts' personal characteristics—that is, internal factors—can also be a cause of their forecast bias. Furthermore, this study contributes by demonstrating that forecast bias can be measured at the individual financial analyst level rather than at the firm level using financial analyst dummy variables.
