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Research Article

Path Structure between KOSDAQ Returns and Economic Variables

Cho, Yeonggyeong

Tongmyong University

Published: January 2004 · Vol. 33 No. 4 · pp. 1255-1279
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Abstract

KOSDAQ (The Korea Securities Dealers Association Automated Quotation) market, started in January 1997, has become the marketplace for high technology firms, small and medium size enterprises and venture firms. The objective of this paper is to analyze path structure of KOSDAQ and economic factors. The research of KOSDAQ market in this issue have never been. Therefore testifying model are deduced from the financial economic theory and previous papers of securities market. After VAR analysis, with SEM(Structural Equation Modeling) methodology, the path structure of KOSDAQ return rate and macroeconomic factors(call rate: CALL, M2, Consumer Price Index: CPI, Corporate Bond Rate: BDR, Won-Dollar Exchange rate: DOLR) is testified. The vector autoregression (VAR) is commonly used for forecasting systems of interrelated time series and for analyzing the dynamic impact of random disturbances on the system of variables. The VAR approach sidesteps the need for structural modeling by treating every endogenous variable in the system as a function of the lagged value of all of the endogenous variable in the system. Amos goes well beyond the usual capabilities found in structural equation modeling (SEM) programs. Multiple models can be fitted in a single analysis, and every pair of models where one model obtained by placing restrictions on the parameters of the other can be examined by Amos, SEM. Amos accepts a path diagram as a model specification and displays parameter estimates graphically on one path diagram. Path diagrams used for model specification and those that display parameter estimates are of presentation quality. This research is the first to empirical test the path diagram of KOSDAQ return rate and macro economic factors. The path diagram model is tested here using data from 1997 to 2003. Result of confirmatory structural equation modeling show that path diagram is successful and many hypothesized relationships are significant. Concretely, 6 paths, m2 ⇐ call, bdr ⇐ call, dolr ⇐ cpi, dolr ⇐ bdr, dolr ⇐ call, kosdaq ⇐ dolr are significant, except 3 paths(cpi ⇐ m2, bdr ⇐ cpi, kosdaq ⇐ bdr). Therefore, the result of this testifying shows that speedy and efficient investment forecasting for KOSDAQ market requires concentration on the movement of 2 macroeconomic variable, Call rate and Won-Dollar exchange rate.
Keywords: ADFCall rateInvestment ForecastingKOSDAQKOSPIMacroeconomic FactorsPath DiagramStructural Equation ModelingVAR