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Korean Academic Society of Business Administration
[ Article ]
korean management review - Vol. 45, No. 5, pp.1671-1695
ISSN: 1226-1874 (Print)
Print publication date 31 Oct 2016
Received 02 May 2016 Accepted 19 Jun 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17287/kmr.2016.45.5.1671

국제회계기준 의무도입 이후 개별 재무분석가의 정보 환경이 이익예측 정확도에 미치는 영향

백혜원*
*(주저자) 충남대학교 경영학부 부교수 hwpaik@cnu.ac.kr
The Effect of an Individual analyst’s Information Environments on Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy after Mandatory IFRS Adoption
Hyewon Paik*
*Associate Professor, School of Business, Chungnam National University, First Author

초록

본 연구는 국제회계기준(이하 IFRS)을 의무도입한 우리나라 기업들을 대상으로 개별 재무분석가들이 IFRS에 의해 작성된 재무제표를 해석함에 있어서 의견일치정도가 증가하는지 또는 의견불일치정도가 증가하는지를 Barron et al.(1998)이 제안한 공통 정보 활용도(BKLS Consensus) 측정치를 통해 살펴보고, 이러한 개별 재무분석가들의 행태가 이익예측정확도를 높이는데 기여하는지 검증하였다. 재무분석가들은 공적(public) 혹은 사적(private) 경로를 통하여 기업 분석을 위한 정보를 획득하고, 이러한 정보를 동일하게 해석하는 경우 공통 정보(common information)로 남게 되지만, 개별 재무분석가별로 서로 달리 해석하는 경우 고유 정보(idiosyncratic information)로 전환될 수 있다.

본 연구 결과 IFRS 도입 이후 개별 재무분석가들은 의견불일치정도가 증가하였다. 즉, 공통 정보 이외에 고유 정보를 더욱 활용하였으나 회계이익의 질이 높은 기업의 경우 공통 정보 활용 비중이 증가하였다. 또한 IFRS 도입 이후 개별 재무분석가들이 고유 정보 활용 비중을 높이는 것은 이익예측 정확도를 높이는데 기여하였으나, 회계이익의 질이 높은 기업의 경우는 공통 정보의 활용으로도 이익예측 정확도를 높이고 있음을 확인하였다. IFRS는 연결재무제표와 공정가치 평가를 기본으로 하며, 상세하고 구체적인 회계처리 방법을 제시하기 보다는 원칙중심의 기준체계를 가지고 있기 때문에, 경영자의 판단으로 회계처리 방법을 선택할 수 있다. 따라서 IFRS 도입 이후 개별 재무분석가들은 공통 정보 이외에 보다 차별화된 고유 정보를 활용하여 수집한 정보를 해석하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 그러나 고유 정보 수집에는 추가적인 시간과 노력이 필요하기 때문에 본 논문은 IFRS 도입 이후 기업이 제공하는 회계정보의 양과 질에 따라 개별 재무분석가는 공통 정보와 고유 정보 활용 전략을 세우는 것이 예측 정확도 향상에 효과적임을 시사한다.

Abstract

In this study, I examine the relation between earnings quality and commonality of information contained in individual analysts' earnings forecasts after mandatory IFRS adoption in Korea. I also examine if this relation affects on analysts' forecast accuracy. Using the empirical proxies suggested by the Barron et al.(1998) model that is based on the across-analyst correlation in forecast errors, I conclude that after mandatory IFRS adoption the commonality of information among active analysts decreases, in other words, the idiosyncratic information contained in these individual analysts' forecasts increases. However, I find after mandatory IFRS adoption the commonality of information among active analysts increases as earnings quality is high. I also show that, as earnings quality is high, analysts' reliance on common information contributes to increase analysts' forecast accuracy after mandatory IFRS adoption. On the other hand, low earnings quality motivates analysts to work harder to develop or acquire relatively more idiosyncratic information in an effort to increase analysts' forecast accuracy.

My results have implication for analysts seeking more idiosyncratic information in response to investors' demands after mandatory IFRS adoption. My results show that these analysts' behavior does help to increase analysts' forecast accuracy when earnings quality is relatively high. Therefore, it is important for analysts to consider earnings quality before they try to develop or acquire idiosyncratic information after mandatory IFRS adoption. When earnings quality is high it is enough for analysts to rely on only common information to increase the analysts' forecast accuracy. Low earnings quality, however, drives analysts work harder to gather idiosyncratic information to increase the accuracy.

Keywords:

mandatory IFRS adoption, BKLS Consensus, accounting quality, analysts' forecast accuracy

키워드:

국제회계기준 의무도입, 공통 정보 활용도, 이익의 질, 재무분석가 이익예측 정확도

Acknowledgments

이 논문은 2013년도 정부(교육부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 연구되었음(NRF-2013S1A5A8025021).This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government(NRF-2013S1A5A8025021).

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• 저자 백혜원은 현재 충남대학교 경상대학 경영학부 회계전공 부교수로 재직 중이다. 미국 University of Texas at Austin에서 경영학 석사를 취득하였고, 연세대학교 경영대학에서 경영학 석사 및 박사를 취득하였다. 주요 연구 분야는 재무분석가 이익예측치, 경영자의 이익조정, 특수관계거래, 지배구조 등이다.