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Korean Academic Society of Business Administration
[ Article ]
korean management review - Vol. 46, No. 2, pp.561-594
ISSN: 1226-1874 (Print)
Print publication date 30 Apr 2017
Received 26 Dec 2016 Accepted 13 Feb 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17287/kmr.2017.46.2.561

회계 보수성이 미래 주가폭락위험에 미치는 영향: 재무제표 비교가능성과 정보불균형의 효과를 중심으로

이상호* ; 최승욱**
*(주저자) 고려대학교 경영대학 석박통합과정 sangholy@gmail.com
**(교신저자) 광운대학교 경영대학 조교수 suchoi@kw.ac.kr
The Effect of Accounting Conservatism on Future Stock Price Crash Risk: The Moderating Effect of Financial Statements Comparability and Information Asymmetry
Sang Ho Lee* ; Seung Uk Choi**
*Integrated Master & Ph. D. Student, Korea University Business School, First Author
**Assistant Professor, School of Business, Kwangwoon University, Corresponding Author

초록

본 연구는 회계 보수성과 차기 주가폭락위험과의 관계를 조사하였다. 또한 재무제표의 비교가능성과 기업의 정보불균형이 회계 보수성과 미래 주가폭락의 관계에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 보수적 회계처리는 수익에 비해 비용을 적시에 인식하므로 경영자의 악재 지연공시 경향을 줄일 수 있다. 이는 누적·은닉된 손실이 한꺼번에 공시되어 향후 주가가 폭락하는 사태의 발생가능성이 낮아질 수 있음을 의미한다. 또한 선행연구에 따르면 보수적 회계처리는 대리인 비용을 줄이고, 기업의 투자 의사결정에 도움을 준다. 따라서 투자자들이 기업의 회계 보수성 정도를 인식한다면 해당 기업의 주가가 급락하는 현상이 미연에 방지될 가능성이 있다.

2002년부터 2014년까지의 9,026개의 상장기업-연도 표본을 대상으로, Basu(1997)의 주가-이익모형 기반의 회계 보수성 측정치를 이용하여 분석을 수행한 결과, 보수적 회계처리 정도는 차기 주가폭락위험과 유의한 관련이 없었다. 그러나 추가적으로 Ball and Shivakumar(2005)의 모형을 이용하여 회계 보수성을 측정한 경우에는 보수적 회계처리의 증가가 차기 주가폭락위험을 줄이는 효과가 있었다. 이러한 혼재된 결과는 회계 보수성과 주가폭락위험의 음(-)의 관계가 실증적으로 명확하지 않음을 제시한다. 이는 투자자들이 기업의 보수적 회계처리를 식별하지 못할 가능성과, 회계 보수성의 수요 자체가 낮을 가능성을 시사한다. 따라서 회계 보수성의 식별가능성이 높아지고, 보수적 회계처리의 수요가 높을 가능성이 있는 재무제표 비교가능성과 정보불균형의 효과를 각각 조사하였다. 그 결과, 재무제표 비교가능성이 높은 기업은 그렇지 않은 기업에 비해 회계 보수성과 차기 주가폭락위험의 음(-)의 관계가 보다 유의하였다. 이는 재무제표 비교가능성이 높아 상대적으로 재무정보 획득비용이 적고 재무제표에 대한 접근이 용이한 기업의 투자자들이 해당 기업의 회계 보수성을 식별하여 투자의사결정에 반영할 가능성이 높다는 것을 시사한다. 또한 산업집중도와 감사인의 산업전문성으로 대용한 정보불균형이 높은 표본에서 이러한 결과들이 유도되는 것으로 나타났다. 추가적으로 주가폭락위험의 다른 대용치를 이용한 결과에서도 본 연구의 결과는 유지되었다.

Abstract

In this paper, we hypothesize and test the association between accounting conservatism and subsequent stock price crash risk. Furthermore, we examine the moderating effect of financial statements comparability and information asymmetry in corporate environment on the relation between accounting conservatism and future crash risk.

Traditional views on accounting conservatism literature argue that conservatism is a general accounting principles that make stricter verification to revenue recognition than losses (Basu 1997). This classic view of accounting conservatism is attributed to the use of financial statements in debt contracts. For example, accounting conservatism benefits creditors thus reduces cost of debt (Zhang 2008). However, recent several papers find the role of accounting conservatism in the stock market. For instance, Francis et al.(2013) document a positive and significant relation between conservatism and firm stock performance during the current crisis. They interpret these evidences that conservative accounting positively affects shareholder value. Also, Balakrishnan et al. (2016) use the similar setting. They find that firms with less conservative financial reporting experienced a decline in investment activity during the global financial crisis. All these evidences show that not only the creditors but also the market participants in the stock market consider firms’conservative accounting information.

By extending studies mentioned above we expect the negative relation between accounting conservatism and future stock price crash risk. Prior research suggests several evidences for the expectation. First, accounting conservatism prevents the delay of losses. Typically, managers have incentives to withhold bad news (Kothari et al. 2009). If conservative accounting reduces such tendency, thereby decreases the risk of accounting bad news, which will avoid possible stock price crash risk in the future (Kim et al. 2016). Secondly, accounting conservatism mitigates conflict between shareholders and debtholders (Ahmed et al. 2002). Also, it enhances corporate decisions. For example, Lara et al. (2016) insist that more conservative firms invest more in settings prone to underinvestment and are associated with reduced overinvestment. Since the failure of corporate investment leads to the decline in stock price, increased efficient investment would prevent crash risk. Based on these prior evidences, we expect a negative relation between accounting conservatism and stock price crash risk.

By using 9,026 listed firm-years in Korean stock market from year 2002 to year 2014, we find a mixed association between accounting conservatism and subsequent crash risk. We find no significant relation between the two when we use Basu (1997)’s return-earnings model to proxy accounting conservatism. However, there is a significant and negative relation when we use Ball and Shivakumar(2005, 2006) measure to proxy accounting conservatism. Furthermore, we find that the relation between accounting conservatism and crash risk is significantly negative in the sub-samples of higher financial statements comparability compared to that of lower comparability. This result is even stronger in the sub-samples of higher information asymmetry. We interpret the results that investors’ understanding of conservative financial information increases, which also enhance the efficiency of their investment decisions. Relationship between accounting conservatism and future stock price crash risk is significant for sub-samples with higher demand for conservative accounting. Financial statements comparability and information asymmetry explain the former and the latter, respectively. Our results remain consistent when we use the different proxies of crash risk.

Our study contributes to the literature in the following ways. First, we extend the growing studies on the link between conservative accounting and stock market. By showing the accounting conservatism reduces stock price crash risk in certain circumstance, our paper provide insight to the following studies. Second, our work complements the literature on financial statement comparability. Because of the difficulty in measuring comparability, related studies have not cumulated the evidences of the role of financial statement comparability yet. This adds an empirical evidence to this growing literature by showing the moderating effect of comparability on relation between accounting conservatism and crash risk. Finally, we provide practical suggestions to the regulators. For example, Korean stock market does not discriminate conservative accounting until the firms enhance financial statements comparability. Thus, stock market policies might consider the moderating effects among the financial information qualities.

Keywords:

Accounting conservatism, crash risk, financial comparability, information asymmetry, industry concentration, auditor industry expertise

키워드:

회계 보수성, 주가폭락위험, 재무제표 비교가능성, 정보불균형, 산업집중도, 산업전문감사인

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• 저자 이상호는 현재 고려대학교 경영대학 회계학 전공 석·박사통합과정생이다. 고려대학교 경영대학 경영학과를 졸업하였다. 주요 연구분야는 기업가치평가, 자본비용, 주가폭락위험, 실물이익조정 등이다.

• 저자 최승욱은 현재 광운대학교 경영대학 경영학과 조교수로 재직 중이다. 고려대학교 경영대학에서 회계학 전공으로 경영학 박사학위를 취득하였다. 주요 연구분야는 회계 보수성, 감사품질, 투자효율성, 재무제표 비교가능성 등이다.