세무위험이 배당과 접대비 지출에 미치는 효과

본 연구는 세무위험의 실제 효과(real effect)를 파악하기 위하여 세무위험이 높은 기업에서 미래 법인세부담에 대한 예방적 동기로 현금배당의 가능성, 현금배당, 그리고 접대비 지출 수준을 감소시키는지 실증적으로 규명하는데 있다. 특히 이를 알아볼 때 본 연구는 또 다른 세무불확실성을 나타내는 조세회피와 비교하여 살펴보았다. 아울러 추가분석에서는 접대비 지출 외에도 경영자의 자유재량이 가능한 기타 재량적 비용으로 광고선전비, 복리후생비 및 기부금과 세무위험과의 관계를 분석하였다. 분석을 위해 본 연구는 세무위험의 측정을 과거(t-4,t) 5년간으로 측정된 Cash 또는 GAAP ETR의 변동성을 이용하였고, 조세회피는 과거 5년간의 장기유효세율인 Cash 또는 GAAP ETR을 이용하였다. 분석기간은 2003년부터 2017년까지의 기간에 금융업을 제외하고 12월이 결산인 유가증권과 코스닥시장에 상장된 기업 중 일정 조건을 만족하는 최종표본 6,585개 기업/연 자료가 분석되었다.

실증결과는 첫째, 일정 변수가 통제된 후에도 세무위험과 현금배당 여부 간에는 유의적인 음(-)의 관계를, 또한 세무위험과 현금배당 수준도 유의적인 음(-)의 관계로 나타났다. 둘째, 세무위험과 접대비 지출 간에는 유의한 음(-)의 관계를 보였다. 셋째, 조세회피의 경우 현금배당 수준 또는 접대비 지출 수준과 음(-)의 관련성이 나타났으나, 현금배당 여부와는 통계적으로 유의한 관계를 보이지 않았다. 넷째, 추가분석에서 세무위험과 기타 재량적 비용과의 관계를 살펴본 결과에 의하면 세무위험과 광고선전비 또는 복리후생비 간에는 유의한 음(-)의 관계를, 그러나 기부금의 경우는 유의한 결과가 나타나지 않았다. 반면, 조세회피는 광고선전비, 복리후생비 및 기부금과 모두 유의한 음(-)의 관계였다. 마지막으로, 재무적 제약에 따라 전체표본을 재무적 제약이 높은 집단과 낮은 집단으로 다시 나누어 분석하더라도 재무적 제약이 높은 집단에서 세무위험이 높을 때 더 뚜렷한 반응을 보인다는 결과는 쉽게 관찰할 수 없었다.

이상을 종합하면, 본 연구결과는 세무위험이 높을 경우 미래 법인세부담이 증가할 수 있어 기업은 현금보유를 늘리는 방안으로 배당정책에 영향을 미치며, 또한 경영자의 의사결정에 접대비 수준의 축소와 기타 재량적 비용으로 광고선전비와 복리후생비를 낮추는 실제 효과를 초래한다는 것을 보여준다. 이러한 본 연구결과는 세무위험이 배당과 접대비, 기타 재량적 비용 지출에 대한 경영자의 의사결정에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인임을 확인하였다는 점에서 의의가 있다.

We empirically examine whether firms with greater tax risk exhibit a lower probability of dividend payouts, reduces the amount of dividend payouts, entertainment expenses, and other discretionary expenses (i.e., advertising expenses, welfare expenses, and donation etc.) due to a precautionary motive to hold cash for potential future tax burdens. Specifically, we examine their relation compared to tax avoidance. More recently, one study in this line of research reports that a significant portion of the cash buffer is associated with uncertainty regarding a firm’s tax positions (Hanlon et al., 2017). Yet, prior literature has granted little attention to what the opportunity costs for specific sources of uncertainty are or the magnitude of these costs (if they exist). Motivated by this, our study extends prior literature by examining whether a particular cash buffer linked with tax risk related to current and prior tax positions alters firm decisions about dividend policy (like cancelled plans to initiate dividends or lower dividend levels), or simply a reduction in more discretionary spending (like entertainment expenses, advertisement, welfare expenses, and donation).

In our tests, to measure tax risk (hereafter TRISK), we calculate the volatility of annual Cash ETSs and GAAP ETRs over the five-year period t-4 to t (e.g., Amberger, 2017; Drake et al., 2017, Jacob et al., 2018 etc.), and we follow Dyreng et al. (2008) and calculate long-run Cash ETRs and GAAP ETRs over the five-year period t-4 to t to measure the level of tax avoidance (hereafter TAVOID). We consider 6,585 firm-year observations for sample firm from the Korea Exchange, and we select satisfying of the criteria for firms with positive pre-tax income and ETR data from 2003 through 2016 to construct four the volatility of Cash (GAAP) ETRs, and the long-run Cash (GAAP) ETRs measures.

Our main results are as follows. First, after controlling for several variables as well as tax avoidance that affect the probability of dividend payouts, we find a negative and significant relation between tax risk (i.e., TRISK) and the probability of dividend payouts. This result suggests that tax risk negatively affects the likelihood of dividend payouts. While, we find no significant association between tax avoidance (i.e., TAVOID) and the probability of dividend payouts. Second, after controlling for several variables as well as tax avoidance that affect the amount of dividend payouts, we find a negative and significant relation between tax risk and the amount of dividend payouts. This result suggest that firms with greater tax risk are less likely to distribute dividends. In addition, we find a negative and significant relation between tax avoidance and the amount of dividend payouts. Third, we find a negative and significant relation between tax risk and the amount of entertainment expenses, we included TAVOID to control for the level of tax avoidance. This result show that firms with greater tax risk are less likely to distribute dividends, suggesting there is an important real opportunity cost of sidelining cash for this purpose. In addition, we find a negative and significant relation between tax avoidance and the amount of entertainment expenses. Fourth, in additional tests, we find a negative and significant relation between tax risk and discretionary expenses (i.e., advertising expenses, welfare expenses), consistent with precautionary motives for holding cash. While, we find a negative and significant relation between tax avoidance and discretionary expenses (i.e., advertising expenses, welfare expenses, donation expenditures). Finally, when we partition the sample into financial constraints (financially constrained firms versus financial unconstrained firms), we found mostly similar results to this version. This is, we no found the effect of tax risk is stronger in the presence of financial constraints.

In sum, we show that tax risk reduces the probability of dividend payouts, the amount of dividend payouts, the amount of entertainment expenses as well as advertising expenses, and welfare expenses. Whereas, we show that tax avoidance reduces the amount of dividend payouts, the amount of entertainment expenses as well as advertising expenses, welfare expenses, and donation expenditures. Thus, tax risk is a relevant determinant of the decision to distribute dividends and of observable dividend levels, and the levels of entertainment expenses as well as discretionary expenses (i.e., advertising expenses, welfare expenses), we find that our results hold when we control for the level of tax avoidance. Therefore, tax uncertainty contributes to overall future cash flow uncertainty and impairs the persistence and predictability of after-tax cash flows available for distribution. This finding should interest investors, practitioners, tax authorities, regulators, and policymakers as volatile tax payments might be an indicator for lower dividend levels, not only but also lower discretionary expenses (i.e., advertising expenses, welfare expenses). Our findings also provide new evidence to the tax risk and tax avoidance in prior literature.

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