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Korean Academic Society of Business Administration
[ Article ]
korean management review - Vol. 49, No. 3, pp.559-598
ISSN: 1226-1874 (Print)
Print publication date 30 Jun 2020
Received 07 Nov 2019 Revised 08 Mar 2020 Accepted 23 Mar 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17287/kmr.2020.49.3.559

세무위험이 투자에 미치는 실제 효과

박종일* ; 김수인**
*(주저자) 충북대학교 경영대학 경영학부 교수 parkjil@chungbuk.ac.kr
**(교신저자) 충북대학교 대학원 회계학과 박사과정 suink@chungbuk.ac.kr
Real Effect of Tax Risk on the Investment
Jongil Park* ; Suin Kim**
*Professor, School of Business, Chungbuk National University, First Author
**Ph. D., Candidate, School of Business, Chungbuk National University, Corresponding Author

초록

본 연구는 기업의 세무위험이 높을 때 연구개발비 및 설비투자에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 특히 본 연구는 이를 알아보는데 있어 비정상 투자수준을 이용한 과잉투자와 과소투자와의 관계에 대해서도 살펴보았다. 또한 조세회피와 투자수준 간의 관계도 앞서와 비교목적으로 살펴보았다. 선행연구는 조세회피의 성향이 높을수록 과잉투자의 가능성이 높다는 결과를 보고하였다(정성환, 2012). 이와 달리, 본 연구에서는 세무위험이 높은 기업일수록 미래 현금흐름에 대한 불확실성이 증가될 수 있으므로, 과소투자의 가능성이 높을 것으로 예상하였다. 분석을 위해 본 연구는 투자수준을 연구개발비(R&D)와 설비투자(CAPEX)로 나누고, 또한 비정상 투자수준도 분석에 고려하였다(Biddle, Hilary, and Verdi, 2009). 본 연구에서 세무위험의 대용치를 Cash ETR 또는 GAAP ETR의 과거 5년간의 변동성으로 측정하였고(Guenther, Matsunaga, and Williams, 2017), 조세회피는 과거 5년간 장기유효세율인 Cash ETR과 GAAP ETR로 측정하였다(Dyreng, Hanlon, and Maydew, 2008). 분석기간은 2003년부터 2016년까지이고, 최종표본은 금융업을 제외한 후 12월이 결산인 상장기업을 대상으로 7,726개 기업/연 자료가 분석되었다.

실증된 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 일정 변수들이 통제된 후에도 세무위험이 높은 기업일수록 투자수준이 유의하게 낮았고, 특히 R&D보다는 CAPEX 수준이 낮게 나타났다. 즉 세무위험은 미래 과세당국에 납부할 법인세를 증가시킬 수 있으므로, 경영자는 이에 대비한 예방적 동기로 당기의 설비투자의 지출 수준을 낮추는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 세무위험을 GAAP ETR로 측정한 경우보다 Cash ETR일 때 더 뚜렷한 관계를 보였다. 반면, 조세회피가 높은 기업일수록 CAPEX보다 R&D 수준이 높게 나타났다. 둘째, 비정상 측정치를 이용해 과잉투자 및 과소투자 구간을 고려하여 분석하면 세무위험은 CAPEX의 과잉투자보다는 과소투자와 양(+)의 관계로 나타났다. 반면, 조세회피는 R&D의 과잉투자와 양(+)의 관계를, R&D의 과소투자와 음(-)의 관계로 나타났다.

본 연구는 세무위험은 기업의 투자수준을 낮추고, 특히 설비투자의 감소를 유도한다는 것을 보여주었다는데 의미가 있다. 또한 앞서와 달리, 조세회피는 연구개발비 지출을 증가시킴을 본 연구는 비교하여 보여주었다. 따라서 본 연구결과는 세무위험 및 조세회피를 분석한 관련연구에 추가적인 증거를 제공한다. 또한 이러한 본 연구의 발견은 학계뿐만 아니라 투자자, 실무계, 과세당국, 규제기관 및 정책입안자에게도 세무위험 및 조세회피가 기업의 투자의사결정에 각각 어떤 상반된 실제 효과를 초래하는지에 대한 전반적인 이해와 관련된 시사점을 더불어 제공한다.

Abstract

We examine whether firms hold more cash in the face of tax uncertainty (hereafter tax risk), namely firms facing greater tax uncertainty are more likely to delay capital investments and that the research and development (hereafter R&D) expenditures made by these firms are lower than that of firms facing less tax uncertainty. In particular, our research investigates the effect of firm’s tax risk on under-investment, which is leading to a precautionary motive to hold cash. More recently, one study in this line of research reports that a significant portion of the cash buffer is associated with uncertainty regarding a firm’s tax positions (Hanlon et al., 2017), and another study in this line of research reports that an increase in tax uncertainty relates to delays in firms’ large capital expenditures (Jacob et al., 2018), consistent with precautionary motives for holding cash. In contrast, the previous domestic research shows that firm’s tax avoidance is positively related to over-investment (e.g., Shim, 2011; Jung, 2012). Thus, we predict that firms will lower probability of a capital investment or R&D investment in a given year engage in precautionary saving of cash in the face of tax uncertainty (tax risk). By contrast, which is compared to firms with high tax avoidance. In that sense, our tests explore another possible real effect of firm with tax uncertainty on investment (i.e., capital investment or R&D investment), the effect on a firm’s level of investment in a given year.

For analysis, we use the level of total investment divided in both capital and R&D investments, and following Biddle et al. (2009), we also measure abnormal investment, respectively. In addition, we use a variable over-investment (or under-investment) to distinguish between situations in which a given firm is more (less) likely to over-invest (under-invest) in the top (bottom) quartile of unexplained investment (i.e., following Biddle et al. (2009) model utilize the residuals from regressions). Our variable of interest, tax risk (hereafter TAXRISK), which we measure using the five-year period t-4 to t standard deviation of Cash (GAAP) ETR (e.g., Guenther et al., 2017; Drake et al., 2017). The variable for comparative purpose, tax avoidance (hereafter TAXAVD), which we calculate the Cash (GAAP) ETR as the ratio of the sum of the cash tax payments (tax expense) over a five-year period t-4 to t to the sum of income before taxes over the same five-year period t-4 to t (Dyreng et al. 2008). Our sample consists of firms from the Korea Exchange in the KISVALUE database during fiscal years ending between December 31, 2003 and December 31, 2016. We consider 7,726 firm-year observations for sample firm satisfying of the criteria for the sample period.

Our main findings are as follows. First, after controlling for several factors that affect the dependence variable, we find that, on average, firms facing greater tax risk (as measured by ETR volatility) decreases the level of investment, more specially capital investment rather than R&D investment (i.e. the effect is most pronounced for Cash ETR volatility than GAAP ETR volatility). In contrast, we find also that firms with high tax avoidance (as measured by the long-run ETR) increases the level of investment, more specially R&D investment rather than capital investment.

Second, in the over-investment group (i.e., we measure indicator variables that equal 1 for firms in the top quintile of R&D or capital investment, and 0 otherwise), we find that a significant and negative association between tax risk and the abnormal capital investment, whereas in the under-investment group (i.e., we measure indicator variables that equal 1 for firms in the bottom quintile of R&D or capital investment, and 0 otherwise), we find that a significant and positive association between tax risk and the abnormal capital investment. On the other hand, in the over-investment group, we find that a significant and positive association between tax avoidance and the abnormal R&D investment, whereas in the under-investment group, we find that a significant and negative association between tax avoidance and the abnormal R&D investment. Overall, these results show that firms with high tax risk related to a reduction in capital investment levels. Whereas, we show that firms with high tax avoidance related to a expansion in R&D investment levels.

Overall, we interpret the evidence as showing that tax uncertainty is associated with larger cash balances due to a precautionary motive to hold cash for potential future tax burden. Therefore, firms facing with higher tax risk decreases the level of capital investment, however R&D investment are not associated with. Our results show that tax risk (i.e., tax risk measure as the volatility of firms’ annual Cash or GAAP ETRs) has important real effects. Our paper makes additional contributions to the related literature. For examples, we testing tax uncertainty allows us to extend the literature on the effects of tax avoidance and, in particular, on the real effects of tax risk, in the opposite direction, unlike tax avoidance. Also, our analysis runs parallel to the contribution in Hanlon et al. (2017) and Jacob et al. (2018). For examples, our study investigates a different cash holding motive emphasized precautionary motive for cash related to tax uncertainty and examines an opportunity cost of holding cash for this reason (i.e., potential delays in capital investment). In addition, our study also complements research asking whether tax-related uncertainty about future cash flows changes influences capital investment. For examples, as a second contribution to the above literature, our study provides an empirical and novel evidence on how uncertainty related to tax positions will alter firm’s decisions about investment.

Keywords:

Tax risk, Tax avoidance, R&D investment, Capital Investment, Over-investment, Under-investment

키워드:

세무위험, 조세회피, 연구개발비 투자, 설비투자, 과잉투자, 과소투자

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• 저자 저자 박종일은 충북대학교 경영대학 경영학부의 재무회계 전공 교수로 재직 중이다. 홍익대학교 경영학부를 졸업한 후, 동 대학의 대학원에서 경영학석사와 박사학위를 취득하였다. 주요 연구분야는 재무보고의 질, 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이, 고평가된 자본, 조세회피, 세무위험, 기업지배구조, 감사위원회, 감사품질, 재무분석가의 이익예측의 특성 등이다.

• 저자 김수인은 현재 충북대학교 경영대학 박사과정이다. 청주대학교 회계학과를 졸업하였으며, 충북대학교 대학원에서 회계학과 석사를 취득한 후, 동 대학원의 박사과정에 재학 중이다. 주요 연구분야는 재무보고의 질, 배당의 정보효과, 투자효율성, 조세회피, 세무위험, 감사품질, 주가폭락위험 등이다.