시장의 불확실성 하에서 기업의 보수적 회계처리와 투자자의 반응
초록
자본시장의 불확실성은 시장참여자들의 의사결정에 중요한 영향을 미친다. 본 연구는 시장의 불확실성이 기업의 회계정보 산출과정에 미치는 영향과 이에 따른 투자자들의 차별적인 반응에 대해 분석하였다. 구체적으로, 시장의 불확실성이 높아지는 환경에서 기업의 보수적 회계처리 정도가 증가하는지를 살펴보고, 기업의 보수적 회계처리가 투자자들의 위험회피적 투자의사결정에 어떤 영향을 미치는지를 분석하였다.
본 연구의 중심변수인 시장의 불확실성은 한국거래소에서 발표하는 변동성지수(VKOSPI)를 이용하여 측정하였다. 그리고 본 연구의 대상기업은 VKOSPI 지수가 발표되기 시작한 2009년부터 2017년까지의 유가증권 상장기업이다. 분석결과, 시장의 불확실성이 높아질 때 기업은 더욱 보수적으로 회계처리하였다. 이는 기업이 시장의 불확실성에 대한 위험을 줄이기 위한 수단으로 보수적 회계처리를 이용하고 있는 것으로 해석된다. 한편, 기업의 보수적 회계처리는 시장의 불확실성이 높아질 때 악재(bad news)에 더 민감하게 반응하는 투자자들의 비대칭적인 의사결정 행태를 완화시키는 것으로 나타났다. 투자자들은 기업의 보수적 회계처리를 자신들을 보호하는 합리적인 회계처리 방법으로 인식하는 것으로 해석된다.
본 연구는 시장의 불확실성이 기업의 보수적 회계처리와 투자자의 의사결정에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석했다는 점에서 의미가 있다. 특히 기업의 보수적 회계처리가 회계정보의 유용성에 긍정적인 역할을 하고 있다는 주장을 지지하고 있다. 또한 우리나라의 자본시장에서도 변동성지수가 시장의 불확실성에 대한 보다 직접적이고 연속적인 측정치로 활용될 수 있음을 보여준다.
Abstract
Market uncertainty has a significant impact on market participants' decision making. This study analyzes the effect of market uncertainty on the accounting policy of firms and the asymmetric decision making behavior of investors to good and bad news. Specifically, we examine whether market uncertainty affects firm’s conservative accounting practices, and analyze how conditional conservatism affects investors' risk-averse investment behavior.
The result of this paper shows that firms are more conservative when market uncertainty increases. Firms use conservative accounting as a means to reduce the risk of market uncertainty. Consistent with prior literature, investors in Korean market also make asymmetric decisions that respond more sensitively to bad news when market uncertainty increases. However, the analysis shows that conservative accounting mitigates the asymmetric investor decision making behavior. It implies that investors perceive conservative accounting as a reasonable way to protect their investment decision making.
This study has contributions that it analyzes empirically the effects of market uncertainty on the corporate accounting policies and on the investor decision making. In particular, it supports the argument that conservative accounting plays a positive role in the usefulness of accounting information. It also shows that the volatility index, VKOSPI, can be used as a measure of direct and continuous market uncertainty in Korean capital markets.
Keywords:
Market uncertainty, VKOSPI, Conservatism, Risk-aversion, Asymmetric decision making키워드:
시장의 불확실성, VKOSPI, 보수주의, 위험회피, 비대칭적 의사결정References
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• 저자 황주희는 현재 성균관대학교 경영연구소 연구원 및 성균관대학교와 상명대학교 경영대학 강사로 재직 중이다. 관심연구분야는 재무보고의 질, 사회적 책임활동 등이다.
• 저자 최관은 현재 성균관대학교 경영대학 교수로 재직중이다. 관심분야는 회계정보의 질과 감사의 품질 등이다.